For the first time, Latinos are on track to be the largest racial or ethnic group to be eligible to vote in a presidential election, according to data on the 2020 electorate released yesterday by the Pew Research Center.
By 2020, 32 million Latinos will be eligible to vote, just slightly more than the 30 million voters who are black. For Asians, the population is expected to be about 11 million, more than double what it was in 2000.
According to Pew, Latinos are projected to be about 13.3 percent of the electorate in 2020, which would make them the largest racial or ethnic minority of the electorate for the first time. Immigration is playing a role, although it is a small one.
One-in-10 eligible voters will be foreign-born in 2020, the highest share since 1970. The share that is eligible to vote does not necessarily transfer to turnout; in recent elections, black voters were “substantially more likely” than Latinos to vote, Pew stated.
The number of Latinos who don’t vote, in fact, has been greater than the number who do in every presidential election since 1996, according to Pew.
Also projected for 2020 is an increase in the millennial share of the electorate because of foreign-born millennials who are naturalizing to become citizens, but they will account for a slightly smaller share of the electorate than in 2016.
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